Cricket has evolved from test to one-day and now T-20, however the way to statistically evaluate the performance has not evolved apart from a one dimensional system. In the current system one works averages from a single point of view, and this is present in both cases where for batsman its average runs per inning or whats his rate of scoring per 100 balls and for bowlers is his run rate per over and average number of runs scored to take a wicket.
With the advent of T20, there is a lot of interests been generated on the science of evaluating a player performance via statistical methods. There has not been a lot of work done in this space, but IPL will lead to an impetus of work in this space.
What I propose here is a multidimensional approach to understand the contribution of the players to his team. This particular stat will take various dimensions into considerations to state the contribution of the player to his team. The name of this stat is ‘Rugger’ and its value will rank the player contribution to his team. In case of batting a higher ‘Rugger Score’ means higher contribution to total score of the team in terms of T-20 characteristics.
The basis of the analysis is three areas of cricket activity across any level –
Defense, Build and Attack. My first lessons in cricket was simple, build partnerships. A partnership is like a skeletal system which holds the body (here team) together and keep the game in movement. The speed of the movement may differ and this is what we see in T-20 where the speed of assimilation of runs increases for the batsman and the need for containment increases for the bowers and fielders.
Let us first look in case of batting on where can ‘
Rugger’ score can make a difference.
Batting:
For T-20 the normal characteristics are speed of scoring but one would need to see how a team holds on to the rate of scoring. A individual player may have a high rate of scoring, but the question is how long can he sustain it in the 120 ball game. It is true in some cases a brilliant batting performance by one man can blow the opposition away, however as the number of T-20 games increases, they will be parity in the play between teams and gem of a innings will come once in way. One player does not make the team and it become more important for the team to click together, which simply means getting the combination right.
To get this combination right, I propose to use a two level approach
· (1) Get a mapping of the batsman on three parameters:
o Average score per inning played, no not-outs taken into consideration
o Scoring rates per 100 balls
o Average partnership per inning, no contribution but as a whole
· (2)
Rugger score based on defense, build and attack mode
How to arrive at a Rugger score
The three elements (defense, build and attack) of any batsman game is scored at a par level each inning, to get an idea on how much is contributing in a T-20 way. As we can see from the table below, the three elements have different weights of contribution. Defense in the game is at 10% (net 5%), building an inning in the game is at 50% and taking the attack to the opposition is at 40% (net 45%)
The formula is as follows:
The score formed is based on positive score from 5 levels and a negative score from a single level. The idea is that one needs to score at a fast rate, but also there is a need to build partnership and sustain momentum. Similarly one would need keep the score board moving without wasting any balls so the need for negative score for balls wasted and not able to convert the same for runs.
When I started this exercise I wanted made the following hypothesis,
· The team with the higher Rugger score will be more successful
· Higher the average Rugger score per total inning played by the players of the team much better the performance
· A team which will be able to field the most balanced side will have higher probability to win
In the next post, we will see how a balance side is made.
