Rugger Concept by Suraj Prasad is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 2.5 India License.
Based on a work at mouglisays.blogspot.com.
Permissions beyond the scope of this license may be available at http://mouglisays.blogspot.com/.

The Return of Mougli

To tackle issues relating of ranking performance batsman, a 2x2 matrix in which by two ways the performance can be measured. In this case we will see only batting
(a) X-Axis: Strike Rate vis-a-vis Y-Axis: Average Score
(b) X-Axis: Strike Rate vis-a-vis Y-Axis: Partnership Participation

Via this two methods and the rugger concept one can map the team performance as a team and track individual performance.

For the first shot, I have analysed RCB performacance in IPL 2008, and IPL 2009. And one can see the difference in the maps.

More that next time.

..and the band will play on: Rise of a new nations

Cricket has evolved from test to one-day and now T-20, however the way to statistically evaluate the performance has not evolved apart from a one dimensional system. In the current system one works averages from a single point of view, and this is present in both cases where for batsman its average runs per inning or whats his rate of scoring per 100 balls and for bowlers is his run rate per over and average number of runs scored to take a wicket.

With the advent of T20, there is a lot of interests been generated on the science of evaluating a player performance via statistical methods. There has not been a lot of work done in this space, but IPL will lead to an impetus of work in this space.

What I propose here is a multidimensional approach to understand the contribution of the players to his team. This particular stat will take various dimensions into considerations to state the contribution of the player to his team. The name of this stat is ‘Rugger’ and its value will rank the player contribution to his team. In case of batting a higher ‘Rugger Score’ means higher contribution to total score of the team in terms of T-20 characteristics.

The basis of the analysis is three areas of cricket activity across any level – Defense, Build and Attack.

My first lessons in cricket was simple, build partnerships. A partnership is like a skeletal system which holds the body (here team) together and keep the game in movement. The speed of the movement may differ and this is what we see in T-20 where the speed of assimilation of runs increases for the batsman and the need for containment increases for the bowers and fielders.

Let us first look in case of batting on where can ‘Rugger’ score can make a difference.

Batting:
For T-20 the normal characteristics are speed of scoring but one would need to see how a team holds on to the rate of scoring. A individual player may have a high rate of scoring, but the question is how long can he sustain it in the 120 ball game. It is true in some cases a brilliant batting performance by one man can blow the opposition away, however as the number of T-20 games increases, they will be parity in the play between teams and gem of a innings will come once in way. One player does not make the team and it become more important for the team to click together, which simply means getting the combination right.
To get this combination right, I propose to use a two level approach
· (1) Get a mapping of the batsman on three parameters:
o Average score per inning played, no not-outs taken into consideration
o Scoring rates per 100 balls
o Average partnership per inning, no contribution but as a whole
· (2) Rugger score based on defense, build and attack mode

How to arrive at a Rugger score
The three elements (defense, build and attack) of any batsman game is scored at a par level each inning, to get an idea on how much is contributing in a T-20 way. As we can see from the table below, the three elements have different weights of contribution. Defense in the game is at 10% (net 5%), building an inning in the game is at 50% and taking the attack to the opposition is at 40% (net 45%)

The formula is as follows:

The score formed is based on positive score from 5 levels and a negative score from a single level. The idea is that one needs to score at a fast rate, but also there is a need to build partnership and sustain momentum. Similarly one would need keep the score board moving without wasting any balls so the need for negative score for balls wasted and not able to convert the same for runs.
When I started this exercise I wanted made the following hypothesis,
· The team with the higher Rugger score will be more successful
· Higher the average Rugger score per total inning played by the players of the team much better the performance
· A team which will be able to field the most balanced side will have higher probability to win

In the next post, we will see how a balance side is made.

In search of truth....inspired from a puzzle

When all is known all truth will be known. But all truth is not the same for all people. What is truth to one is a lie to another. Nobody wants to believe a lie, so they do not want to believe what others believe as truth if it is not the same as their own truth.

Now lies get covered as truth and truth is made out as lies, yet truth is also proven to be truth, unless proven to be lies and lies are proven as lies, unless proven to be truth.

If there is one Ultimate Truth that cannot be a lie, and one Ultimate Lie that cannot be truth, but lie is or is not disguised as truth and truth is or is not made out as a lie, how will a seeker find which is the truth and which is the lie?

Singh is Kinng

Watched the movie in talkie town in Miyapur-Hyderabad (Rs60) and am lucky.....the movie is worth that. I though there would be a story...but is there a need of a story. I thought it was a Kushwant Singh joke book with Santa Singh and Banta Singh (Akshay and OmPuri) with a dash of Sardarni (KatS) around.

The situational jokes were good...with Karachters like Ungli(finger) Baba, Mikha Singh, Uddhas Singh...ketc,ketc. Well....K dosage for Kats, aka Katrina who was described by Happy Singh (Akshay) as "Kya Sardarni hai, bahar se Gora and andar se bilkul Bomb ka GOLA", when he first see's her and I totally agree with him.

So earthlings watch the movie if you want some laughs, but dont spend money on it. Wait for it to come to TV. And then we can SINGH....Jee Karta...re Jee Karta.....

PS: had a ticket of "Made of Honour", also during the same time should have gone there, not for the movie but for the company :)

Mougli Category: Pyjama
Mougli Verdict: 2/5
(2 for the bomb ka gola)

Mummy Part 3

Saw the trailer, and knew what to expect. Predictable and similar to part 1 with a generation change shown; son of O'Conner grows up and is also a tomb raider. Johnathan (brother in law of Senior Conner) is the saving grace with the same old charm.

The chemistry between the leads are missing and how I wish Rachel Weisz was with Brendan Fraser again.....I hope if they intend to make another one, she is brought back.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0859163/

Street Hawk: Hyperthrust

Rember the school days when saw this footage.I wonder where the guys are now.

AUS-ENG ashes-dust to dust.

Was in Jaipur in the Diwali break at sisters place, and took a stride to SMS stadium, where the Australia and England was taking place. A prelude to Ashes, it turned to a damp squib.God knows how England won the ashes, now they need more then divine intervention to hold it back. But still enjoyed it with Australia 3 wickets down at 34, the whole stadium was shouting for more blood. But Hussey prevailed and took Ausie home. Next game going at Mohali on 29th of October - India -Australia. Dravid best of Luck, be ready for some surprises.

Being Cyrus

Being Cyrus:A movie with a twist. The twist ,English Language, the psycho thriller was not that a thriller and the scariest parts been whenever Dimple Kapadia comming to screen. By half time the secret could be predicted and it becomes a hum digger later. Saif Ali Khan is growing in stature by keeping to single hero movies and wants to carry the film himself. He does try it here but does not suceed as Hum aur Tum. Boman Irani wasted in a short cameo. I wish he gets a full length feature film to show his acting prowess...any one listening.